Welcome to the latest fortnightly newsletter. This edition not only provides our now regular views on how the economy and markets are coping with COVID19, but in the second section, we consider some of the key issues emanating from Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak’s,...
Since our last update on 10th June, equity markets have slipped back marginally but this should not be a surprise, given the strength and pace of the recovery since its low-point in March. Indeed, the gradient of the recovery in share prices had left many...
We have always argued that financial markets, all of them, not just equities, are driven by two pricing mechanisms. In the short term prices are affected by ‘momentum’ which is heavily influenced by sentiment. Over the longer term asset returns revert to mean. This means...
Over the period 1968-69 Hong Kong flu killed around 100,000 Americans. At the time the US population was around 200m, meaning for COVID19 to have an equivalence (population is now 330m), the death toll would need to be around 165,000 (currently circa 100,000). This is...
After weeks of lockdown, Boris Johnson and his medical advisers have seen sufficient improvement in infection and mortality rates to begin a gradual easing of restrictions. Before considering what this means for financial markets, we thought we would start with a few words about what...
It is clear that the lockdown is to remain part of our lives for a few more weeks yet and in maybe a lesser form, for a good deal longer than that. Undoubtedly it will be quite some time before we can identify with what...
Welcome to our latest investment update, which we have published a day later than has been our norm, as two trading days were lost to the Easter weekend. Given that share prices appear to be displaying a bit more resilience and stability (more on that...
The title of this newsletter is more than slightly ‘tongue-in-cheek’. Our starting point for any advice is one of diversification. After all, one of the oldest adages in the finance world is that the only investors who do not need to diversify, are those that...
Not my words, but those of Mark Twain and perhaps nowhere is this more of a truism than in the financial world. Whenever there is a major inflection point, researchers and analysts can be found flicking through the history books to see if parallels can...
Welcome to the latest of our weekly bulletins. I was speaking to one of my relatives in Ireland over the weekend and he quipped that the UK authorities were fighting two battles - COVID19 and stupidity. As it turns out, queues forming at seaside fish...